Located near the critical point, march economic leading indicators release what signals?
The purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing sector dropped to 49.5 percent on Thursday, but remained close to the critical point of 50 percent. Some sub-indexes and industrial PMI remained at a good level, indicating that there are still positive factors in the economy.”Due to the impact of the epidemic, some enterprises in some regions have temporarily reduced production and stopped production, which has affected the normal production and operation of upstream and downstream enterprises.At the same time, the recent intensification of international geopolitical conflicts has reduced or cancelled export orders of some enterprises, and manufacturing production activities and market demand have weakened.”National Bureau of Statistics service survey center senior statistician Zhao Qinghe analysis.Statistics show that in March, the production index and new orders index fell into contraction territory;The index for new export orders fell 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, ending a two-streak of gains.Supplier delivery time index was 1.7 percentage points lower than last month, and the stability of manufacturing supply chain was affected to some extent.The import index dropped 1.7 percentage points to 46.9 percent in March from the previous month.China logistics information center expert Wen Tao analysis, the equipment manufacturing industry by geopolitical conflict and had a greater influence on the rise in commodity prices, such as conflict chip and battery raw materials and crude oil supply fluctuation, prices rise, pushing up prices and new energy car car use cost, to some extent inhibited the residents purchase demand.As a leading indicator of economic performance, the MANUFACTURING PMI in March fell, but still hovering near the “expansion and contraction line”, there is still good support to maintain stable economic performance.The high-tech manufacturing sector maintained expansion.In March, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing stood at 50.4 percent, falling from the previous month but remaining in expansionary territory.In terms of enterprise employment and market expectation, the employment index and business activity expectation index of high-tech manufacturing industry were 52.0% and 57.8% respectively in March, 3.4 and 2.1 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry.This shows that the high-tech manufacturing industry has a strong development resilience, and enterprises continue to be optimistic about the future market development.The official of Sany heavy industry said that currently, the enterprise is speeding up the global manufacturing layout, promoting the overseas digital strategy, building intelligent “beacon factory”, building advanced manufacturing capability in the localization, and is full of confidence in the prospect of high-tech manufacturing market.Basic raw materials PMI picked up.Despite the pressure from rising prices of raw materials, production and business activities in the basic raw materials industry remained stable and increased. PMI of the basic raw materials industry was 49.5% in March, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.”Although the equipment manufacturing industry, high technology manufacturing and consumer goods industry faced with rising prices of raw materials such as pressure, but the three industry purchase price index is lower than the basic raw material industry purchasing price index by more than 10%, shows that the basic raw material industry internal digest part of the cost pressure, important raw materials and primary products guaranteed for stabilizing price policies to achieve better results.”Wen Tao said.Business sentiment remains positive.In March, although the expected index of production and operation activities decreased by 3 percentage points to 55.7% from the previous month, compared with the average of 53.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, the current index of production and operation activities is still at a good level, and the overall expectation of enterprises remains relatively optimistic.In addition, large enterprises are relatively stable.In March, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.3 percent, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, but 1.8 percentage points higher than the manufacturing sector as a whole, which is in the economic zone and continues to expand.Mainly affected by the epidemic, the non-manufacturing business activity index dropped below the critical point in March. However, with the warming of the climate, the construction progress was accelerated, and the construction business level rose slightly. In addition, the business activity index of the information service industry kept at a high level, indicating that the development trend of new drivers remained stable.”Survey companies said that with the epidemic under effective control in some areas, suppressed production and demand will gradually recover and the market is expected to pick up.”Zhao Qinghe said.However, under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations, as well as the impact of the epidemic and geopolitical conflicts, the overall economic prosperity level has dropped to a certain extent, and the operating pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased. This shows that the Chinese economy still needs to climb the road and overcome difficulties.Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macro-economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of The State Council, suggested that efforts should be made to improve the precision of epidemic prevention and control and effectively reduce the impact of sporadic epidemic on economic and social activities.We will promptly refine and implement policies related to expanding domestic demand. In particular, we will do a good job on major government construction projects and strive to start work as early as possible with early results.We will do a good job of ensuring supply and price stability to ensure the supply and price stability of important means of production.